Senior Associate Justice Antonio Carpio warns that China may reclaim Scarborough Shoal before the end of President Rodrigo Duterte’s term in 2022. According to Carpio, China will attempt to reclaim the area as part of a larger plan to solidify their presence in the South China Sea.
Carpio points out that the Chinese will use the Code of Conduct as a justification for their actions, claiming it will manage the dispute without settling its merits. He also notes that the Philippine government’s inability to stop China from building structures in the shoal will legitimize their artificial islands.
However, Carpio sees potential in a joint exploration deal between Manila and Beijing, which may lead to an implied recognition of the Philippines’ sovereign rights over the West Philippine Sea. This could mark a softer stance for China compared to their initial claim of ‘indisputable sovereignty.’
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